There
is no shortage of viable plans for a departure from the eurozone or,
in some instances, the EU. All require a measure of fortitude and
adaptability–a willingness to step beyond what is, in fact, a very
uncomfortable comfort zone. The question is whether the Greek ethos
can rise to this challenge.
by
Michael Nevradakis
Part
4 - Challenges real and imaginary: the impact of fear
An exit—and
a post-exit transition—will not be easy. Nobody has claimed
otherwise. But what Greece is currently experiencing–and what its
government has committed to for the next four-plus decades–is also
painful, with no realistic light at the end of the tunnel. Having
committed to decades of austerity within the eurozone context and
with no control over its fiscal or monetary policy or its economic
destiny, it is hard to make a convincing argument that Greece’s
economy can recover within the eurozone and the EU.
The main
challenge though, as I see it, has nothing to do with the eurozone,
the EU, or the obstacles that might be faced during the transition
process. The primary difficulty Greece faces concerns its political
class and the willingness of its people to move ahead with
change—true change. To be perfectly frank, this author does not
believe that any entity, any individual or any party or movement
within the present-day political landscape–and particularly among
those in parliament today–is competent or decisive enough to
oversee a smooth transition to a post-euro and perhaps post-EU
future, whether this transition were to happen by choice or
involuntarily.
I do not
believe a “Plan B” is in place even as a worst-case scenario,
such as if there were to be a sudden collapse of the eurozone or
Greece were to be forced out for other reasons. I also do not believe
that the track record of Greece’s political class—replete with
corruption, cronyism, irresponsibility and impunity—leaves much
room for optimism. This is a political class that is most likely
compromised as a result of its corrupt practices, and one that has
proven that it places neoliberal interests and personal gain ahead of
the public interest and well-being. And frankly, if such a transition
were to be handled by a corrupt, compromised government with a poor
track record, Greece might be better off standing pat for now.
It would not
surprise this author, for instance, to see the current government or
other so-called “leftist” forces like the DiEM25 movement of
Yanis Varoufakis, if they were to ascend to power, introduce a
parallel currency and sell it to the public and to the markets as “a
return to a domestic currency.” The disastrous history of parallel
currencies and bimetallism does not provide much hope that this would
be a viable solution for Greece.
This means
that it’s up to the citizenry of Greece to be the force that
delivers change. This too seems something of a tall order, however.
Learned helplessness and misery are deeply rooted in Greece, as has
been demonstrated. It is not uncommon to hear, for instance, people
react to suggestions not to vote for any of the existing political
parties and to look instead to support new political forces or
develop new political movements, by retorting “and who else is
there to vote for?”
Another
dangerously prevalent viewpoint is that Greece is “the worst in
everything” and, by extension, that “Greeks are the worst people
in the world,” a populace that brought economic disaster upon
itself. In a climate of such helplessness, fear, misery and
complacency, it’s hard to imagine any sort of motivation or clarion
call that would allow the people to overcome these sentiments.
Such
expressions are usually accompanied by fears of the “external
threats” Greece faces due to its geopolitical location. As this
line of thinking goes, Greece cannot afford to leave the “umbrella
of protection” provided by EU membership (and also by being part of
NATO). It bears noting though that EU membership has done nothing to
stop Turkish aggression in the Aegean, including violations of Greek
territorial waters and airspace. This has not been a victimless
activity: for example, in 2006, Greek air force pilot Konstantinos
Iliakis was killed in an aerial exercise near the Greek island of
Karpathos, while attempting to intercept Turkish fighter jets.
EU
membership has also done nothing to put an end to the Turkish
occupation of nearly 40 percent of Cyprus. Indeed, the EU supported
the UN’s “Annan Plan,” which would have granted permanent
status to the Turkish military presence and the illegal settlers from
the Turkish mainland on the island. All of Greece’s major political
parties openly supported this plan.
Indeed,
while the EU has recently been posturing against Turkey, with threats
to put a permanent end to its hopes for EU membership, it is the EU
that succumbed to the bullying of autocratic Turkish president Tayyip
Erdogan, his demands for EU money, and his threats to allow refugees
and migrants to freely pass through Turkey into European territory.
Turkey is the West’s favored son in the region (and increasingly
Russia’s as well), and seemingly can do no wrong.
As for NATO,
this author’s experience at NATO headquarters during an academic
visit in 2013 sums up its arrogance and Greece’s second-class
standing within the “alliance.” In a roundtable meeting with
then-U.S. ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder, and in response to an
audience question regarding which countries were candidates for NATO
membership, he asked whether anybody in the room was of Greek
descent. When I raised my hand, he arrogantly retorted that because I
was present, he’d make a reference to the “Former Yugoslav
Republic of Macedonia” instead of simply “Macedonia” —
referencing Greece’s longstanding dispute with its northern
neighbor over its usage and historical appropriation of the name
“Macedonia.”
Greece’s
geopolitical position and threats existed prior to eurozone and EU
and NATO membership. Today, with membership in these institutions,
these threats continue to exist. And yet the perception that Greece
would be “destroyed,” not just economically but militarily, the
moment it leaves the eurozone or EU, still persists.
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