It has been
a long, long political year in Spain. Tomorrow will be Spain's
pre-electoral "day of reflection" and on Sunday Spaniards
will vote in the fifth major ballot of 2015, their general election,
the twelfth in the modern democratic period, if we include the
constituent elections in 1977 after Franco died. 350 seats in Spanish
Congress and 208 seats in the Spanish Senate are up for grabs, and
for the first time since the end of the 1970s, the two-party
establishment monopoly is under threat from Podemos, led by Pablo
Iglesias, and Ciudadanos, led by Albert Rivera.
A year ago,
Podemos shocked Spain and international observers by shooting to the
top of the polls, having appeared out of nowhere at the European
elections in May 2014, sending a shiver of hope and excitement down
the spines of many younger Spaniards disillusioned after years of
economic crisis, chronic, structural unemployment and corruption. A
year ago, the operation to transform Ciudadanos from a regional
Catalan party into a rival to both Podemos—for those wanting
generational change—and the Popular Party—for a non-Rajoy option
on the right—had not begun. It did so shortly thereafter and by
April, it was not only a four-way race but nose-to-nose.
The roller
coaster continued over the summer and autumn months, but the latest
polls say that is still the likely outcome, with Podemos and
Ciudadanos scooping up perhaps 100 seats that will be lost by the
Popular Party and the Spanish Socialist Party, although the Podemos
total will be split four ways between the national brand and regional
groups in Catalonia, Valencia and Galicia. Thanks to Spain's
electoral laws, which prohibit polls being published in the five days
prior to an election, there is an added element of polling
uncertainty and whispered tension. Leaked internal PP data and
tracking from Andorra suggest a last minute Podemos surge, perhaps
pushing Mr. Iglesias and his colleagues all the way up into second
place—Mr. Rajoy was filmed admitting as much to Mrs. Merkel on
Friday—but five days ago Podemos was back in fourth place, and had
been in every poll since the beginning of October.
The PP is
the party of older Spaniards. Spain's population is ageing over the
long-term, and has aged since 2011. Data from the National Statistics
Institute (INE) show 40% of voters are now aged over 55, while 22%
are under 34. Older people are much more likely to go out and vote on
election day. A recent Metroscopia analysis showed Podemos does well
among the youngest Spaniards, and Ciudadanos among the working and
professional adults from 35-54. 60-year-old Mariano Rajoy is the
oldest of the five leading candidates for Prime Minister, and first
became a regional MP in Galicia in 1981. On that day, Pablo Iglesias
had just turned three and Albert Rivera was not yet two. So Mr. Rajoy
has been selling experience and a steady hand on the tiller of
government, and the two youngsters hawking youth and change.
So
coalitions or minority government beckon.
The three
most talked about options have been a grand establishment coalition
between the PP and the PSOE, which would ring well with older voters,
Ciudadanos abstaining to allow the PP to govern in minority, or what
the Popular Party labelled a "Super Reds" anti-PP deal
along the lines of what happened in some of Spain's major cities
after the local elections in May. Despite his campaign team briefing
a grand deal with the PSOE could be on the cards—with Susana Diaz
in Andalusia taking over from Pedro Sánchez—Mr. Rajoy poured cold
water on the idea on Friday, perhaps stung by Mr. Sánchez's personal
insults during their TV debate on Monday. On Friday evening, Albert
Rivera admitted Ciudadanos would abstain to allow the party with the
most seats to govern, and the PP has topped the polls all year. Two
days before the ballot, Mr. Rivera might have just shot himself in
the foot among those who wanted right but not Rajoy or change but not
Podemos.
The first
vote of confidence in the new candidate for Prime Minister is set to
take place in mid-January, in theory. If Spaniards vote for greater
confusion—the latest CIS data showed 40% were undecided—and the
parties cannot decide who should try, the Spanish Constitution says
King Felipe would have to get involved. The Constitution does not
stipulate which candidate the King would have to ask to become Prime
Minister. If no one can agree by the middle of March, a new general
election would be called.
But let's
not get ahead of ourselves. On Sunday, Spaniards vote. Between left
and right, old and new, young and old, and clarity and confusion.
Source:
Comments
Post a Comment