by Eric
Draitser
The nature
of the war in Afghanistan has shifted dramatically in recent months.
While the US and NATO continue to be actively involved in the country
– their strategic objectives having changed very little since the
Bush administration launched the war nearly a decade and a half ago –
the complexion of the battlefield, and the parties actively engaged
in the war, has changed significantly.
The
emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan, along with the impending withdrawal
of US-NATO troops from the country, has driven the Taliban into a
marriage of convenience, if not an outright alliance, with Iran. What
seemed like an unfathomable scenario just a few years ago, Shia
Iran’s support for the hardline Sunni Taliban has become a reality
due to the changing circumstances of the war. Though it may be hard
to believe, such an alliance is now a critical element of the
situation on the ground in Afghanistan. But its significance is far
larger than just shifting the balance of power within the country.
Instead,
Afghanistan is now in many ways a proxy conflict between the US and
its western and Gulf allies on the one hand, and Iran and certain
non-western countries, most notably China, on the other. If the
contours of the conflict might not be immediately apparent, that is
only because the western media, and all the alleged brainiacs of the
corporate think tanks, have failed to present the conflict in its
true context. The narrative of Afghanistan, to the extent that it’s
discussed at all, continues to be about terrorism and stability,
nation-building and “support.” But this is a fundamental
misunderstanding and mischaracterization of the current war, and the
agenda driving it.
And what is
this new and dangerous agenda? It is about no less than the future of
Afghanistan and Central Asia. It is about the US and its allies
clinging to the country, a key foothold in the region, and wanting to
find any pretext to maintain their presence. It is about Iran and
China positioning themselves in the country for the inevitable moment
of US withdrawal and the opening up of Afghanistan’s economy. At
the most basic level, it is about access and influence. And, as usual
in this part of the world, terrorism and extremism are the most
potent weapons.
The New
Afghan War: Enter ISIS
However,
within a few weeks, ISIS militants committed a mass beheading in the
strategically vital Ghazni province, an important region of the
country that lies on the Kabul-Kandahar highway. This incident
officially put ISIS on the map in Afghanistan, and marked a
significant sea change in the nature of the conflict there.
While the
western media was replete with stories of ISIS and Taliban factions
fighting together under the Islamic State’s banner, it has become
clear since then that, rather than a collaboration between the
groups, there has simply been a steady migration of fighters from the
Taliban to ISIS which, if the stories are to be believed, pays much
better. In fact, the last few months have demonstrated that, there is
in fact competition between the two, and that Taliban and ISIS groups
have fought each other in very intense battles. As Abdul Hai
Akhondzada, deputy head of the Afghan parliament’s national
security commission told Deutsche Welle in June:
Local
residents and security officials confirmed that “Islamic State”
(IS) fighters killed between 10 and 15 Taliban members in Nangarhar
province…The Taliban have been fighting for a long period of time
in Afghanistan and they see their position threatened by the
emergence of IS. Of course, they won’t give up easily… While IS
is fighting to increase its presence in the whole region – not only
Afghanistan – the Taliban are fighting to overthrow the Afghan
government.
Such
skirmishes have now become a regular occurrence, pointing to a
growing war between ISIS and Taliban factions. Increasingly, the war
is being transformed from one waged by the Taliban against the Kabul
government and its US and NATO patrons, into a war with competing
groups fighting each other for supremacy on the battlefield and in
the political life of the country.
But
of course, the true nature of the conflict can only be understood
through an examination of the key interests backing each side. And it
is here where the shadowy world of terror factions and proxy armies
are brought into the light of day.
It
is now no secret that ISIS is an asset of western intelligence
agencies and governments. The group has been directly sponsored and
facilitated and/or allowed to develop unhindered in order to serve a
useful purpose in Syria and Iraq. As the now infamous secret 2012 US
Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) document obtained by Judicial Watch
revealed, the US has knowingly promoted the spread of the Islamic
State since at least 2012 in order to use it as a weapon against the
Assad government. The document noted that, “… there is the
possibility of establishing a declared or undeclared Salafist
Principality in eastern Syria…and this is exactly what the
supporting powers to the opposition want, in order to isolate the
Syrian regime, which is considered the strategic depth of the Shia
expansion (Iraq and Iran).”
Moreover,
intelligence agencies such as Turkish intelligence agency (MIT) have
been facilitating ISIS militants crossing the border into Syria, as
well as supporting an international network of terrorists to as far
away as the Xinjiang province of China. Even US Vice President Joe
Biden has noted that:
Our
allies in the region were our largest problem in Syria. The Turks
were great friends… [and] the Saudis, the Emirates, etcetera. What
were they doing?…They poured hundreds of millions of dollars and
tens of tons of weapons into anyone who would fight against Assad —
except that the people who were being supplied, [they] were al-Nusra,
and al-Qaeda, and the extremist elements of jihadis who were coming
from other parts of the world.
Given
all of this information, it is beyond a shadow of a doubt that ISIS
is to a large degree an asset of the US and its western allies. As if
one needed further confirmation of this point, former Afghan
President Hamid Karzai, himself no stranger to the machination of US
intelligence, bluntly declared just last month that ISIS could not
possibly have expanded into Afghanistan “without a
foreign hand, without foreign backing.”
In
Syria and Iraq, ISIS has essentially done the dirty work for the US
and its Gulf and Israeli and Turkish allies. In Libya, ISIS has
become a dominant terrorist force led by a documented US asset. In
Yemen, ISIS has gained a foothold and carried out terrorist actions
in support of the Saudi – and by extension, US – mission against
the Shia Houthi rebels and their allies. Taken in total then, ISIS
has proven very effective in furthering the US-NATO-GCC-Israel
agenda. So too in Afghanistan.
Iran
and Taliban Ally to Counter ISIS and Its Patrons
And
it is for this reason that the Taliban has turned to Iran for
support. Though Tehran has officially denied providing any weapons or
financial support to the Taliban, sources in the region have
confirmed that indeed such support is given. A senior Afghan
government official speaking to the Wall Street Journal explained
succinctly that, “At the beginning Iran was supporting [the]
Taliban financially. But now they are training and equipping them,
too.” Afghan security officials have claimed that Iran is hosting
Taliban militants at training camps in the cities of Tehran, Mashhad,
and Zahedan, and in the province of Kerman. If true, it means that
the level of cooperation between the two has moved to a whole new
level.
While
one might want to maintain some skepticism about all the claims made
by US and Afghan officials regarding Iranian support for the Taliban,
the alliance makes good strategic sense for Tehran. As Iran fights
against ISIS in Syria and Iraq, so too must it check the spread of
this terror group in neighboring Afghanistan.
Moreover,
Iran understands that ISIS is, in effect, an arm of the power
projection of its regional rivals Turkey and Saudi Arabia, both of
whom have been primary instigators of the war in Syria and the
attempt to break the alliance of Iran-Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah.
Therefore, from the Iranian perspective, the Taliban’s war against
ISIS in Afghanistan is essentially a new theater in the larger war
against ISIS and its backers.
Additionally,
there is still another important political rationale behind Tehran’s
overtures to the Taliban: leverage and access. Iran is preparing for
the impending departure of US-NATO forces from Afghanistan, and it
desperately wants to make sure it has friends in the new government
which will likely include some key members of the Taliban in
important positions. And the recent moves by the Taliban to engage in
peace talks only further this point; Iran wants to be part of a peace
deal which could unite the non-ISIS forces in Afghanistan thereby
giving Tehran both access and, most importantly, influence over the
decision-making apparatus in an independent Afghanistan.
China
and the New Afghanistan
Iran
certainly has partners in the charm offensive toward the Taliban,
most notably China. The last few months have seen a flurry of rumors
that China has played host to a Taliban delegation interested in
engaging in substantive peace talks with the Kabul government, a move
which threatens to fundamentally alter the balance of power in
Afghanistan and the region. Assuming the reports are true – by all
indications they are – China is positioning itself to become the
single most important player in a post-occupation Afghanistan.
Earlier
this month in fact, an Afghan delegation from Kabul met with Taliban
representatives in Islamabad, Pakistan to begin the dialogue process.
It is a virtual certainty that such talks would never have taken
place had the Chinese not intervened and opened direct channels of
communication with the Taliban earlier this year. In this way,
Beijing has become the key intermediary in the peace process in
Afghanistan, a development which is likely to cause a fair amount of
consternation in Washington. China has a multitude of reasons for
pushing so hard for this dialogue process.
First
and foremost, China sees in Afghanistan one of the main keys to its
entire regional, and indeed global, strategy, from the New Silk Roads
to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Sitting in the middle of
the strategically critical Central Asia region, Afghanistan
represents for China both a bridge to its partner, Pakistan, and the
key to the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia. Moreover, it
represents a critical node in the potential pipeline networks, as
well as trading routes.
Beijing
also intends to be a major player in the exploitation of the mineral
wealth of Afghanistan. The US Geological Survey has estimated that
the mineral wealth of Afghanistan is worth roughly $1 trillion,
making it some of the most prized land in the world. Iron, copper,
cobalt, gold, lithium, and many other minerals are to be found just
underneath the surface of Afghanistan; clearly an enticing prospect
for China. Indeed, China has already heavily invested in copper
mining concessions among others.
It
is in this arena where China and its longtime rival India have come
into conflict, as Delhi has also been a major player competing for
key mining concessions in Afghanistan, including the vast iron ore
deposits. Iran also figures into this question as its port of
Chabahar, seen as an important prize for both India and China,
is the likely destination for the iron ore extracted from
Afghanistan, especially if it is to be shipped to India.
Not
to be overlooked of course is the security issue. China’s ongoing
struggle against Islamic extremism in Xinjiang has led to fears in
Beijing that any economic plans could be jeopardized by
terrorism-related instability. Xinjiang has seen a number of deadly
terrorist attacks in the last eighteen months, including the heinous
drive-by bombings that killed dozens and injured over 100 people in
May 2014, the mass stabbings and bombings of November 2014, and the
deadly attack by Uighur terrorists on a traffic checkpoint just last
month which left 18 people dead.
And
it is here where all these issues converge. China needs Iran both for
economic and counter-terrorism reasons. Beijing wants to see Iran act
as the driving force in the battle against ISIS terrorism in
Afghanistan, as well as in the Middle East, in order to destroy the
Saudi-backed and Turkey-backed terror networks that support the
Uighur extremists. China also wants to be an active player in
Afghanistan in order to both buttress its own national security and
to instigate itself as the central economic force in the region. The
strategic imperatives couldn’t be clearer.
Seen
in this way, Afghanistan is at the very heart of both China’s and
Iran’s regional plans. And this fact, more than any other, explains
exactly the purpose that ISIS serves in Afghanistan. From the
perspective of Washington, nothing could serve US imperial ambitions
more effectively than a destabilization of Afghanistan both as
justification for continued occupation, and to block Chinese
penetration.
So,
once again, we see ISIS as the convenient tool of western power
projection. No doubt strategic planners in Tehran and Beijing see it
too. The question is: will they be able to stop it?
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